Win-loss analysis: learn from won and lost tenders and raise your win rate

What is a win-loss analysis?

A win-loss analysis is a fixed review of every tender and proposal you submit, won or lost, aimed at understanding why the buyer chose you or someone else. You use the outcome to choose better where to bid, and to write better where you do.

It differs from an ad hoc review in two ways. You do it every time, including when you win. And you do it the same way each time, so you can compare tenders. One lost tender tells you what went wrong with that buyer. Twenty tenders in the same format tell you what goes wrong with you.

One lost tender tells you something about the buyer. Twenty tell you something about yourself.

Why reviewing pays: win rate and cost per contract won

Your win rate, also called hit rate, is the share of your bids that you win. What counts as a good win rate depends on your market, the number of competitors and the type of contract. There is no fixed benchmark, so compare yourself mainly with yourself, per year and per type of work.

More important than the win rate itself is what a won contract costs you. A fictional example. In a year you bid twelve times and win three: a win rate of 25 percent. If a bid takes you 80 hours on average, each contract won costs you 320 hours. If your reviews show that four of the lost tenders were barely winnable from the start, and you had passed on them, you would have won the same three contracts with 640 hours: just over 210 hours per contract.

That is where a win-loss analysis pays off most. Not in a better answer to one criterion, but in a sharper bid/no-bid decision. The hours you no longer spend on unwinnable tenders go to the ones you can win.

What information do you get after a Dutch public tender?

For a tender above the EU thresholds in the Netherlands, you receive a written award decision (gunningsbeslissing) with the relevant reasons for that decision. Under article 2.130 of the Aanbestedingswet 2012, the Dutch Public Procurement Act, these include at least the characteristics and relative advantages of the selected bid and the name of the winner. The notice also describes the standstill period (opschortende termijn): at least 20 calendar days, starting the day after the notice is sent (article 2.127). Only after that may the buyer sign the contract.

Scores are not literally mentioned in the current text of the Act, but in practice you often receive them per criterion, with an explanation. On 24 April 2026, the interim relief judge of the Limburg district court considered it reasonable for a buyer to share the scores and show where you stand relative to the winner (ECLI:NL:RBLIM:2026:3931). Giving only the winner’s total scores was not enough in that case: you must be able to understand what the winner did better than you.

This may become more explicit. A bill to strengthen legal protection in public procurement (parliamentary paper 36 874) would expressly add the scores of the winning bid, and the scores of your own bid with their justification, to the required reasons. The bill was submitted on 18 December 2025 and in November 2026 is still before the Dutch House of Representatives: the committee submitted its written questions at the end of October 2026, and there has been no plenary debate or vote yet. So it does not apply yet.

What else can you request?

The EU procurement directive gives a bidder with an admissible bid the right to ask in writing for the characteristics and relative advantages of the selected bid, with an answer no later than 15 days after the request (article 55 of Directive 2014/24/EU). Dutch law goes further: those characteristics and relative advantages must already be in the award decision itself (article 2.130). The Dutch Act applies a 15-day limit after a written request to information on the progress of negotiations or a dialogue (article 2.55a). If something is missing from the reasons, ask for it straight away, during the standstill period.

A debrief meeting is not a right, but many buyers are open to one. Ask for it, and prepare. First put your score next to the winner’s for each criterion and read the reasons. How to do that is covered in after the award decision. Go into the meeting with two or three questions for each criterion where you lost the most points: what should have been there to score one level higher, and what weighed most for the panel?

Keep an eye on the deadlines in the tender documents meanwhile. A conversation to learn is different from challenging the decision, and if you want to challenge it, you must do so in time.

How do you run a debrief after a private tender?

In a private tender, call the client yourself within a week of the outcome and ask for twenty minutes. There is no written reasoning, and a company owes you no explanation. What you do get depends on how you ask. How to open that conversation is covered in following up a proposal. These questions give you the most to work with.

1. 1What made the difference?Ask about the winner, not about yourself. What did the winner have that the others did not?
2. 2Where was our proposal strongest and weakest?Ask for one point of each. One concrete weak point is worth more than a general compliment.
3. 3Where was our price?You do not need figures. Whether you were clearly higher, about the same or lower already tells you whether you lost on price or on content.
4. 4Did anything count that was not in the request?A preference, a past experience, a concern that only came up in conversation. In a private tender, that is often the real reason.
5. 5What should we do to stand a chance next time?And may we stay in touch? The answer tells you whether this client is worth the effort on a next request.

Where possible, speak to more than one person, for example the decision-maker and someone from procurement. Write up the answers the same day, in the client’s own words.

A fixed review format for every tender

A fixed format makes tenders comparable. Fill it in within two weeks of the outcome, with everyone who worked on the bid, whether you lost or won. How this review fits into your process is covered in organising the bid process.

The cause row matters most. Choose one main cause per criterion, not five. If it was content, your approach must change. If it was evidence, your references and figures must get stronger. If it was the writing, writing for points shows how to move up a level.

What do you measure across tenders?

Across tenders, you measure where you win and where you lose, per sector, per type of buyer and per criterion. Only then do you see what is structural and what is chance.

Be careful with small numbers. Two lost tenders in one sector are not yet a pattern. Look at the figures once a quarter, and only draw conclusions over a year or a larger number of tenders.

How do you feed the lessons into your profile and bid/no-bid?

A lesson only counts if it changes your next bid. So put every action from your review where you will come across it at the next tender.

1. 1Update your company profileA reference without figures gets figures. A certificate that is asked for more often goes on the plan. A differentiator that did not convince the panel gets better evidence, or goes.
2. 2Sharpen your bid/no-bid criteriaTurn a pattern into a question in your decision. A fictional example: “Where price weighs more than half, we won nothing in a year. We only bid there if we can point to a price advantage.”
3. 3Set a checkpoint per type of criterionIf you keep losing points on the same type of criterion, add a fixed check on exactly that point to your review round.
4. 4Adjust how you find tendersSearch more specifically for contracts in sectors and with buyers where your win rate is high. What you do not see, you do not have to turn down.
5. 5Keep trackRecord for each lesson when you applied it. At the next review, check whether it had an effect.

A lesson that does not change your next bid is only a memory.